South Africa could experience a particularly hot and dry summer, with Mpumalanga among the provinces facing an increased risk of extreme heat as a strong El Niño weather pattern develops.
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has forecast above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall across much of the country during the 2026/27 summer season.
The developing El Niño weather pattern, combined with global warming, could increase the frequency and severity of heatwaves in the coming months.
Mpumalanga Among Areas at Risk
Mpumalanga, Limpopo, North West and the Free State are among the provinces considered particularly vulnerable to hotter and drier conditions.
Parts of Mpumalanga, including the Lowveld, are especially exposed to extreme summer temperatures. Prolonged heat and reduced rainfall could also affect farming activities, water supplies and increase the risk of veld fires.
Although the seasonal outlook indicates warmer and drier conditions, SAWS cautions that El Niño does not automatically result in drought, and individual heatwaves cannot be predicted months in advance.
A heatwave awareness poster warns South Africans of potentially extreme summer temperatures linked to El Niño and shares important heat safety precautions. Image: FEDUP Agri Hubs / Gert Sibande District Municipality.
What Is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that occurs when parts of the tropical Pacific Ocean become unusually warm, influencing weather conditions around the world.
In Southern Africa, it is often associated with higher temperatures and reduced summer rainfall.
Residents Urged to Take Precautions
As temperatures rise, residents are encouraged to take the following precautions:
- Drink water regularly and remain hydrated.
- Avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day, particularly between 11:00 and 15:00.
- Wear lightweight, light-coloured clothing.
- Keep children, older persons and pets cool and hydrated.
- Never leave children or pets unattended in parked vehicles.
- Watch for signs of heat-related illness, including headaches, dizziness, nausea and unusual weakness.
Heatstroke is a medical emergency. Anyone experiencing confusion, collapse or other signs of severe overheating requires immediate medical attention and rapid cooling.
Residents are advised to follow official SAWS weather warnings as summer approaches, particularly during periods of extreme heat.