Eskom’s Winter 2025 power system outlook paints a markedly improved picture for South Africa’s energy security, with no loadshedding expected so long as unplanned outages remain below 13 GW, the utility announced on 5 May 2025.
For the 153 days spanning May to September, Eskom projects that:
- No loadshedding will be required if unplanned outages stay under 13 GW.
- If outages rise to 15 GW, Stage 2 loadshedding would be limited to a maximum of 21 days—a significant improvement over last winter’s worst-case Stage 5 scenario.
- This outlook reflects a 3.1 GW year-on-year reduction in unplanned outages and a revised forecast range of 13–15 GW, down from 14–17 GW in Winter 2024 — a season that ultimately saw no loadshedding with average outages at 12.3 GW .
Eskom Group Chief Executive Dan Marokane highlighted that operational performance and efficiency gains underpinned this improved outlook. “In FY 2025 we delivered power 96% of the time, compared to just 9.9% the year before,” he said, noting a 50% reduction in diesel turbine usage that saved roughly R16 billion . Despite these gains, Marokane acknowledged setbacks earlier this year and outlined a targeted recovery plan to “reinforce operational discipline and address root causes” of recent outages.
Key performance indicators driving the Winter 2025 forecast include:
- Unplanned outages down from 18 GW in May 2023 to 13.5 GW in April 2025, with summer averages of 12.5 GW against a base-case of 13 GW.
- Planned maintenance at 12.8% of capacity in FY 2025 (up from 12% in FY 2024), ensuring readiness for higher winter demand while meeting environmental and regulatory conditions.
- Plant availability rising to 61% (up from 54.6% last year), with further gains expected as recovery actions conclude.
- Diesel consumption halved year-on-year, yielding R16.51 billion in savings.
- Sales volumes up 3.6%, bolstered by stronger generation and increased exports.
On the capacity-building front, Eskom reported:
- Kusile Units 2 and 3 reconnected with flue gas desulphurisation systems; Unit 1 set to return in June following scheduled maintenance.
- Koeberg Unit 2 added over 900 MW back to the grid in December 2024.
- Kusile Unit 6 synchronized in March 2025 (800 MW), with commercial operation due September 2025.
- Medupi Unit 4 on track to contribute 800 MW by end-May 2025.
- 3.47 GW of wind capacity mobilized in the Eastern and Western Cape.
- 880 000 smart meters installed, aiding demand control and enabling customers to export surplus clean energy.
Looking ahead, Eskom aims to implement 5.9 GW of clean energy projects by 2030, legally separate its Distribution and Generation businesses, and explore strategic partnerships to secure funding and execution.
“Eskom produced more energy in FY 2025 than in the previous two years,” said Bheki Nxumalo, Group Executive for Generation, “and we continue to make bold decisions to build a stronger, more reliable power system for the country.” He added that a data-driven Generation Recovery Plan will intensify focus on timely unit returns and strengthen fleet resilience.
Eskom extended its thanks to government stakeholders, including the National Energy Crisis Committee (NECOM), and its employees for their dedication to the ongoing turnaround.